Sensex in the near-term.

[finizard]

Sensex in the near-term.
following things to be remembered:
1. subprime crisis loss is around $4 billion. so FIIs will take out there money from equity.
2. US slow down
3. Indian economy is also cooling down. industrial production is already down. earnings growth will come down.
4. sentiment is week. Indian growth story already lived 4-5 years which is difficult sustain.

already sensex valuation is 22 times. if these factors affect the market, there will be a fall. the valuation should be brought to 16-18 times. then the sensex will be around 13150 - 15000. this will be bottom level. maximum level will be 19000-20000.
except last year maximum P/E had been 20. in January 2008 it went up 28.
any events other than above will certainly change the trend.
Rakesh jhunjunwala says: The India story is irreversible. Whatever the risks, they can at most cause delays. I think nothing can change India's growth prospects. If the market has managed to rise from 3000 to 14500, what is wrong if it remains in the range of 12000 to 15000 for a year?

[darpanasharma]

The domestic reasons were even more convincing. Inflation had relapsed. Interest rates have also been hardening and prices rising giving an indication that the US is on way to recovery though the Federal Reserve is still cautions mainly because unemployment is still above 9 percent.